Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C6 0xc66a…ed6a other 561 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$68,378 (+23%) realized +$68,378 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate78%438W / 123L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day126.8pace
Fees−$1,647est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$25,436
sports 48% +$6,970
world 1% +$383
crypto 1% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +16.5% +5.4% 83% 56% +1.8%
≤30d 561 +20.5% +9.0% 78% 49% +0.3%
≤90d 561 +20.5% +9.0% 78% 49% +0.3%
all 561 +20.5% +9.0% 78% 49% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.0% 49% +0.3%
10% -1.4% 29% -9.3%
15% ← realistic here -10.9% 21% -18.0%
20% -19.7% 15% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$931) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$145 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$68,378
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses438 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,647
Open positions0
Markets (closed)561 / 561
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$534
Trades / day126.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 561 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $113 +$11 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $606 +$142 +24%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $303 +$32 +11%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $696 +$87 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $888 +$212 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $14 +$2 +15%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $290 +$87 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $36 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $882 +$228 +26%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,913 +$428 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,181 +$26 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $992 +$108 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $992 −$324 -33%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,329 +$101 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $219 −$78 -36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $991 −$177 -18%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $79 −$10 -13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $91 −$4 -5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,009 −$279 -28%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $117 −$82 -70%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $704 −$541 -77%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$8 +53%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $964 +$136 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $263 +$38 +14%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $1,844 +$62 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $231 +$80 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $46 +$5 +10%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$3 +36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $340 −$340 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $585 −$35 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $967 −$27 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,538 +$203 +13%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,413 +$171 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $451 +$242 +54%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $658 +$78 +12%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $922 +$178 +19%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $916 +$184 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $886 +$214 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $46 +$10 +22%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $991 +$109 +11%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $123 +$12 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $37 +$4 +10%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $807 +$293 +36%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,000 −$480 -48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,000 −$382 -38%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $24 +$6 +25%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,000 +$100 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,000 +$100 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $124 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $748 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $197 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $104 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $783 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,100 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $49 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $17 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $14 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 90¢ $665 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $50 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $16 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 90¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 90¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 87¢ $618 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $205 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 90¢ $11 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $575 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $77 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 89¢ $227 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $377 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $1,110 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records