Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc668…60fa other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$16
politics 30% −$13
sports 16% +$67
crypto 5% −$2
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 73 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 114 +5.9% -4.2% 11% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 7% -9.4%
10% -13.4% 5% -18.1%
15% -21.7% 4% -26.0%
20% -29.4% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×10.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage130d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $191 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $157 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $161 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $186 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $761 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $174 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $459 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $153 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $325 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $168 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $153 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,292 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $158 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $274 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $258 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $225 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $489 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 14 $309 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 14 $312 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $267 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 12 $1,108 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $302 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $236 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 10 $278 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $257 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $311 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $277 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $217 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1,214 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $245 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $191 22d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $191 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $157 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $157 27d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $161 27d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $161 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $186 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $186 28d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $198 28d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $198 28d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $174 28d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $174 30d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $140 30d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $140 30d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $171 31d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $171 31d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $153 33d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $153 34d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $196 34d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $196 34d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 34d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 35d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $148 35d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $148 35d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $147 35d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $147 36d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $189 37d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $189 37d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $159 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 346 history records