Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc667…34ce sports 40 markets active 4d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$586 (-4%) realized −$586 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day54.5pace
Fees−$485est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$998
crypto 7% −$137
other 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -15.1% -23.2% 38% 35% -16.5%
≤30d 40 -15.1% -23.2% 38% 35% -16.5%
≤90d 40 -15.1% -23.2% 38% 35% -16.5%
all 40 -15.1% -23.2% 38% 35% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 35% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 32% -24.5%
15% -37.2% 28% -31.8%
20% -43.4% 28% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$512) neutral
Persistence
early +15% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$308 vs −$231 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$586
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$485
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$376
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $124 −$109 -88%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $1,029 −$612 -60%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $264 −$264 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $1,277 +$258 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 12 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$162 +158%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 11 $190 −$149 -78%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $278 +$258 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $512 −$458 -89%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $914 −$511 -56%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $154 −$154 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $410 +$134 +33%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $922 −$922 -100%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $439 −$127 -29%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $717 −$88 -12%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $512 +$53 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $98 −$98 -100%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $244 −$244 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $97 −$97 -100%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $305 +$236 +78%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $510 +$300 +59%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $512 +$420 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $194 −$42 -22%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $397 −$397 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $313 −$18 -6%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $308 −$308 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $460 +$554 +121%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $307 −$133 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $237 +$166 +70%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $206 −$8 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $643 +$926 +144%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $113 −$113 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $510 −$510 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $103 +$130 +126%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $679 +$782 +115%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $206 −$86 -42%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $205 +$192 +94%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $203 +$48 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY Dali Blanch 50¢ $264 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 10¢ $82 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 5¢ $15 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 13¢ $42 4d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever SELL Chicago Sky 5¢ $41 4d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Chicago Sky 22¢ $190 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 8¢ $206 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 13¢ $192 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 21¢ $107 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 22¢ $225 4d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez SELL Thiago Cigarran 78¢ $536 4d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Thiago Cigarran 40¢ $278 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 2¢ $54 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 22¢ $225 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $2 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $490 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 18¢ $512 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 23¢ $307 4d
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $185 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 20¢ $922 4d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 20¢ $154 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ $1,535 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 31¢ $970 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 46¢ $305 5d
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko SELL Varvara Lepchenko 23¢ $312 5d
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko BUY Varvara Lepchenko 31¢ $439 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records