Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc666…aff7 crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$121 (-3%) realized −$113 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$472
other 4% +$2
culture 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -24.9% -32.1% 53% 23% -19.3%
≤30d 30 -24.9% -32.1% 53% 23% -19.3%
≤90d 30 -24.9% -32.1% 53% 23% -19.3%
all 30 -24.9% -32.1% 53% 23% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 23% -19.3%
10% -38.6% 13% -27.0%
15% -44.5% 3% -34.1%
20% -49.9% 0% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$57 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage15d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $94 $90 −$4 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $121 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $328 −$306 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $331 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $281 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $307 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $143 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $313 −$23 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $306 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$14 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $54 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$14 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $223 −$223 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $163 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $329 +$60 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $279 +$68 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $80 +$39 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $205 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $90 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $92 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $303 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $300 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $40 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.35 · official $358.75 · 137 history records