Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc664…409d other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$260 (-11%) realized −$251 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$1,888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$110
sports 11% −$146
crypto 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-79.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -84.3% -85.8% 0% 0% -85.8%
≤30d 2 -84.3% -85.8% 0% 0% -85.8%
≤90d 4 -32.7% -39.1% 50% 50% -12.4%
all 12 -77.6% -79.7% 17% 17% -71.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -79.7% 17% -71.5%
10% -81.7% 8% -74.2%
15% -83.4% 0% -76.7%
20% -85.1% 0% -79.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$27 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$1,888
Realized−$251
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions14
Markets (closed)12 / 26
History coverage584d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $415 $414 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $302 $303 +$1 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $291 $290 −$1 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $258 $259 +$1 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $136 $137 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $117 $118 +$2 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $111 $106 −$5 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $105 $93 −$12 (-11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $76 $74 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $64 +$10 (+19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $5 −$2 (-28%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $19 −$16 -84%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 03 $19 +$2 +13%
Panthers vs. Canadiens Apr 08 $72 +$18 +25%
NHL Playoffs: Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars (To Advance) May 07 $50 −$50 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Capitals vs. Hurricanes (To Advance) May 03 $50 −$50 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (To Advance) May 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Trudeau out in 2024? Dec 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the fight end in Round 6? Nov 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the fight end in Round 5? Nov 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the fight end in the Round 2? Nov 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $140 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $70 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $310 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $299 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $105 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $123 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $32 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $111 7h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $425 10h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 11h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $20 11h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 24h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 40h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,887.50 · official $1,887.71 (match) · 56 history records