Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc662…b919 world 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,674 (+6%) realized +$12,799 · open −$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate58%112W / 80L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$840per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$31,606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$232
7 days+$2,569
14 days+$3,881
30 days+$4,429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$6,961
other 19% +$440
sports 3% +$298
politics 1% −$265
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% +$83
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.2% -8.5% 75% 25% -2.9%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 29% -4.9%
≤90d 192 +3.2% -6.7% 58% 29% -5.2%
all 192 +3.2% -6.7% 58% 29% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 29% -5.2%
10% -15.6% 14% -14.3%
15% ← realistic here -23.8% 9% -22.5%
20% -31.2% 6% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,109) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$98 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$31,606
Realized+$12,799
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses112 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions53
Markets (closed)192 / 245
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$840
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 83¢ 84¢ $4,311 $4,379 +$68 (+2%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 74¢ $3,973 $4,107 +$134 (+3%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $3,684 $3,341 −$343 (-9%)
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? No 81¢ 87¢ $3,081 $3,300 +$219 (+7%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,691 $1,763 +$72 (+4%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 77¢ $1,227 $1,386 +$159 (+13%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,230 $1,237 +$8 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $1,132 $1,230 +$98 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $952 $1,132 +$180 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 34¢ $1,370 $1,000 −$370 (-27%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? No 78¢ 84¢ $879 $952 +$73 (+8%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? No 74¢ 72¢ $922 $894 −$28 (-3%)
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? No 42¢ 40¢ $907 $852 −$55 (-6%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 75¢ 76¢ $716 $717 +$1 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $372 $706 +$334 (+90%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $574 $619 +$45 (+8%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? No 64¢ 68¢ $479 $514 +$34 (+7%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 60¢ 84¢ $300 $420 +$120 (+40%)
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $360 $405 +$45 (+12%)
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 44¢ $359 $286 −$74 (-21%)
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? Yes 34¢ 29¢ $306 $261 −$45 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $260 $236 −$24 (-9%)
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? No 55¢ 80¢ $161 $233 +$72 (+45%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 59¢ $210 $206 −$4 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $303 $148 −$154 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? Jun 28 $1,692 +$251 +15%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Jun 27 $217 −$170 -78%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 26 $1,809 +$152 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $3,134 +$108 +4%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Jun 25 $2,713 +$48 +2%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 25 $305 −$158 -52%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Jun 25 $52 +$4 +8%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $360 +$27 +8%
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? Jun 24 $1,304 +$107 +8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 24 $1,121 +$130 +12%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $34 +$70 +205%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 24 $7,953 +$680 +8%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $12,529 +$1,563 +12%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? Jun 23 $1,038 +$81 +8%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 22 $577 −$283 -49%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 21 $1,969 +$140 +7%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 20 $534 +$55 +10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $2,215 +$709 +32%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $118 +$10 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $480 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 18 $131 −$84 -64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $323 −$323 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 18 $2,972 −$208 -7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? Jun 17 $3,619 +$329 +9%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 17 $310 −$18 -6%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 17 $1,144 +$32 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $6,785 +$437 +6%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 16 $1,880 +$141 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 16 $237 −$194 -82%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $572 +$126 +22%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $754 +$184 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $870 −$10 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $303 −$83 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $158 −$18 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,757 +$221 +13%
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative elect Jun 12 $116 −$17 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $646 +$81 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $699 −$34 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1,139 +$124 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $262 −$64 -24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 11 $1,109 +$79 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $335 −$73 -22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $66 −$25 -38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $940 −$171 -18%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $287 −$254 -88%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative electio Jun 10 $17 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $213 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $82 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $62 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $91 2h
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $99 5h
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 5h
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $105 5h
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 7h
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $42 11h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $358 11h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $405 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $220 15h
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? BUY No 63¢ $18 16h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $89 17h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $20 17h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $8 17h
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 20h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $220 21h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $535 21h
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $300 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $47 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $170 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $170 22h
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $192 31h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $26 35h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $37 35h
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,605.70 · official $31,606.24 (match) · 3500 history records