Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc662…0927 crypto 593 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,484 (-4%) realized −$1,451 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate62%354W / 221L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$264est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$396
14 days−$674
30 days−$1,011
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% −$375
sports 23% −$136
other 19% −$311
politics 14% −$260
crypto 6% −$70
economics 3% −$181
finance 3% −$42
tech 2% −$101
weather 1% −$25
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -11.0% -19.5% 42% 15% -15.4%
≤30d 432 -2.5% -11.8% 59% 27% -13.3%
≤90d 575 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 21% -13.1%
all 575 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 21% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 21% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 10% -21.4%
15% -27.8% 3% -29.0%
20% -34.9% 2% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$1,451
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses354 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Est. fees paid−$264
Open positions17
Markets (closed)575 / 593
History coverage54d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 575 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 56¢ $43 $32 −$12 (-27%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 22¢ 20¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? No 64¢ 64¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-23%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 17¢ 15¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-12%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? No 48¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? No 44¢ 74¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+68%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 33¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 72¢ 68¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 41¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award? Yes 40¢ 1¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 36¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -24%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $40 −$5 -12%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $22 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 16 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $16 −$1 -8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $17 −$1 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$5 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -6%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $716 −$12 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $18 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $27 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $9 $0 -4%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election Jun 16 $11 $0 -4%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $170 in June? Jun 16 $29 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $67 −$11 -17%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 16 $36 −$14 -38%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 16 $28 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $18 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 15 $14 −$2 -15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 15 $9 −$6 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $36 −$4 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $77 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $17 −$3 -18%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$4 -15%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $17 −$6 -34%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 15 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $25 −$2 -8%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 15 $48 −$10 -21%
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 15 $13 $0 -4%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $109 −$18 -16%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 3m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $18 9m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $4 10m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $4 11m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $7 11m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $4 15m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $15 23m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 37m
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 54¢ $6 41m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 14¢ $5 41m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 14¢ $0 41m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $20 42m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 65¢ $13 42m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 13¢ $3 43m
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 54¢ $6 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $22 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $4 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $40 1h
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gro SELL No 56¢ $31 1h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $14 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 27¢ $17 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL No 73¢ $22 1h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $4 1h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $12 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 27¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.45 · official $112.02 · 1973 history records