Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc65f…2322 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$15
14 days−$32
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$31
politics 26% −$12
sports 16% −$9
crypto 7% −$3
economics 6% −$1
culture 4% −$2
world 3% −$1
finance 2% −$2
tech 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.4% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 58 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 102 -0.6% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 120 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 110
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage99d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $252 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $48 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $88 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $207 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $341 −$2 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $46 $0 -1%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $138 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $29 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $619 −$3 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $133 −$1 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $97 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $45 −$2 -5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $153 −$2 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $43 $0 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $246 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 22 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $695 −$2 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 21 $56 −$2 -4%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $48 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 8h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 9h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 17h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 18h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 26h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 26h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 35h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 35h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 42h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $50 43h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $41 2d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $9 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $8 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $41 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $41 3d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $43 3d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $63 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $63 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $55 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.43 · official $47.43 (match) · 444 history records