Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc65d…9ab0 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% $0
other 22% $0
politics 18% $0
crypto 5% −$3
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -0.2% -9.7% 34% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage447d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $32 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $9 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $33 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 27 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 17 $12 $0 +3%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 10 $12 $0 -2%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 07 $16 −$3 -17%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 18h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $24 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $28 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $28 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $28 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $4 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $29 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.94 · official $30.94 (match) · 104 history records