Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C6 0xc65d…b636 world 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% $0
other 27% −$1
politics 20% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.1%
all 25 -3.8% -13.0% 32% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage275d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $31 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $26 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $28 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $13 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 31 $29 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 07 $13 $0 -1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 06 $15 $0 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $30 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $30 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 18h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $26 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $27 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $27 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $26 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $29 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $29 31d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $15 142d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $11 195d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $11 259d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $11 259d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $11 260d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $2 260d
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $13 260d
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $13 260d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $13 260d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records