Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

C6 0xc659…a2ad politics 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 705d

TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$156 (-13%) realized −$154 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate71%12W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$67per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$22

7 days−$22

14 days−$22

30 days−$22

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-15.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-22.2%	-29.6%	0%	0%	-29.6%
≤30d	1	-22.2%	-29.6%	0%	0%	-29.6%
≤90d	1	-22.2%	-29.6%	0%	0%	-29.6%
all	17	-6.2%	-15.2%	71%	41%	-20.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.2%	41%	-20.2%
10%	-23.3%	24%	-27.8%
15%	-30.7%	6%	-34.8%
20%	-37.5%	6%	-41.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 37% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% too few recent

Fragile wins

42% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +13% → late -24% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$50 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.47 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage

Net worth$73

Realized−$154

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses12 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage705d

Avg bet$67

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$75	$73	−$2 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	Jun 29	$99	−$22	-22%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?	Dec 30	$99	−$99	-100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	Dec 21	$99	−$99	-100%
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election	Dec 01	$26	+$15	+59%
Will the Liberal Reform Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parl	Nov 25	$25	−$25	-100%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?	Nov 25	$39	+$11	+30%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?	Nov 21	$30	+$9	+30%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Oct 17	$113	+$10	+9%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	Oct 17	$41	−$7	-17%
Trump sentenced to between 0 and 11 months prison time?	Sep 06	$91	+$4	+4%
Maduro out before September?	Aug 24	$29	+$6	+19%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September?	Aug 23	$108	+$28	+26%
Bitcoin above $65,000 on August 9?	Aug 09	$105	+$3	+3%
Will Trump and Harris debate before election?	Aug 08	$78	+$13	+17%
Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election?	Aug 06	$86	+$8	+9%
Will Biden finish his term?	Aug 06	$40	+$8	+21%
Fed rate cut by July 31?	Aug 01	$28	+$2	+7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	18¢	$77	1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	SELL No	43¢	$77	1h
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?	BUY No	64¢	$99	180d
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	BUY No	62¢	$99	190d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	BUY No	54¢	$99	190d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?	SELL Yes	75¢	$36	573d
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election	SELL Yes	92¢	$9	575d
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election	SELL Yes	92¢	$13	575d
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election	SELL Yes	92¢	$18	575d
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election	BUY Yes	58¢	$26	580d
Will the Liberal Reform Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parl	BUY Yes	58¢	$25	580d
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?	SELL Yes	100¢	$50	580d
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	580d
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?	BUY Yes	77¢	$39	584d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?	BUY Yes	77¢	$30	590d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	61¢	$123	619d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	SELL No	34¢	$34	619d
Trump sentenced to between 0 and 11 months prison time?	SELL No	95¢	$95	660d
Maduro out before September?	SELL No	99¢	$35	674d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September?	SELL Yes	90¢	$22	674d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September?	SELL Yes	85¢	$38	674d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September?	SELL Yes	85¢	$4	674d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September?	SELL Yes	72¢	$72	674d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September?	BUY Yes	62¢	$108	688d
Bitcoin above $65,000 on August 9?	BUY No	97¢	$105	689d
Will Trump and Harris debate before election?	SELL Yes	91¢	$91	689d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	690d
Will Trump and Harris debate before election?	BUY Yes	78¢	$78	691d
Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	94¢	$94	691d
Will Biden finish his term?	SELL Yes	80¢	$48	691d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.72 · official $72.72 (match) · 40 history records