trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | No | 82¢ | 94¢ | $23,788 | $27,290 | +$3,503 (+15%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 76¢ | $13,963 | $11,570 | −$2,393 (-17%) |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | No | 86¢ | 97¢ | $6,398 | $7,222 | +$823 (+13%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | No | 82¢ | 69¢ | $8,608 | $7,216 | −$1,392 (-16%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | No | 64¢ | 88¢ | $3,067 | $4,196 | +$1,130 (+37%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 64¢ | 0¢ | $3,200 | $0 | −$3,200 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? | No | 43¢ | 0¢ | $935 | $0 | −$935 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on June 1? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $522 | $0 | −$522 (-100%) |
| Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? | No | 43¢ | 0¢ | $602 | $0 | −$602 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | Jun 11 | $5,802 | +$59 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $8,230 | −$227 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 10 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 10 | $12,799 | −$713 | -6% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? | Jun 09 | $946 | −$935 | -99% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $46,047 | +$3,321 | +7% |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? | Jun 04 | $712 | +$58 | +8% |
| Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? | Jun 04 | $322 | +$27 | +8% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 | Jun 04 | $272 | +$354 | +130% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 | Jun 04 | $67 | +$89 | +133% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $6,400 | −$3,200 | -50% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? | Jun 01 | $2,895 | +$932 | +32% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $143 | +$64 | +45% |
| Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? | Jun 01 | $612 | −$602 | -98% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on June 1? | Jun 01 | $522 | −$522 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 01 | $27,146 | +$1,586 | +6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $20,309 | +$1,001 | +5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 27 | $51,192 | −$28,638 | -56% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | May 25 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | May 23 | $39,761 | +$2,282 | +6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $5,406 | +$4,452 | +82% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | May 06 | $1,363 | +$790 | +58% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -15.0% | -23.1% | 50% | 0% | -7.7% |
| ≤30d | 21 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 67% | 24% | -17.8% |
| ≤90d | 22 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 68% | 27% | -17.4% |
| all | 22 | +3.1% | -6.7% | 68% | 27% | -17.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -6.7% | 27% | -17.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -15.6% | 27% | -25.3% |
| 15% | -23.8% | 23% | -32.5% |
| 20% | -31.3% | 18% | -39.1% |