Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc651…45a2 crypto 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$833 (+0%) realized +$833 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate88%269W / 36L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$580per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$65
14 days+$108
30 days−$633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$521
other 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -6.7% -15.6% 91% 9% -7.2%
≤30d 43 -4.7% -13.8% 93% 2% -12.4%
≤90d 114 -6.9% -15.8% 89% 6% -10.7%
all 305 -0.9% -10.3% 88% 17% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 17% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 9% -17.9%
15% -26.7% 5% -25.9%
20% -33.9% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,031) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$209 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$833
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses269 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage128d
Avg bet$580
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $209 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $175 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $203 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $295 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $290 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $285 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $282 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $280 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $270 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $242 +$28 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $247 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $244 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $242 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $240 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $235 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $230 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $218 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $209 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $206 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $191 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $181 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 05 $180 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 05 $171 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 05 $151 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 01 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 01 $1,001 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 29 $1,001 +$29 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6AM ET May 29 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 29 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 29 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 27 $433 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 27 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 27 $172 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 27 $1,002 +$29 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 26 $1,001 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1PM ET May 26 $525 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 22 $993 +$49 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1PM ET May 21 $1,001 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 21 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 21 $1,001 +$17 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 18 $1,001 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET May 18 $1,001 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 18 $1,003 +$39 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 15 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET May 15 $1,001 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 15 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 15 $1,004 +$50 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $209 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $160 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $203 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $295 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $290 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $285 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $276 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $285 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $280 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $270 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $242 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $247 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $244 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $242 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $240 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $199 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $230 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1362 history records