Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C6 0xc64f…6436 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$75 (+15%) realized +$82 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate87%13W / 2L

Drawdown14%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$80

7 days+$83

14 days+$83

30 days+$83

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+11.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+44.5%	+30.7%	100%	70%	+17.2%
≤30d	10	+44.5%	+30.7%	100%	70%	+17.2%
≤90d	11	+40.7%	+27.3%	100%	64%	+16.4%
all	15	+23.1%	+11.4%	87%	47%	+11.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.4%	47%	+11.0%
10%	+0.7%	47%	+0.4%
15%	-9.0%	33%	-9.3%
20%	-17.9%	20%	-18.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

46% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late +45% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×7.87 per $1 lost it wins $7.87

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage

Net worth$23

Realized+$82

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)87%

Wins / losses13 / 2

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage224d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown14%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Team Falcons	89¢	100¢	$21	$23	+$3 (+12%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner	Leviatán Esports	20¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 21	$77	+$6	+7%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	Jun 21	$74	+$3	+4%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	Jun 21	$49	+$29	+59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$21	+$28	+134%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner	Jun 20	$17	+$4	+23%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 20	$14	+$3	+24%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 20	$14	$0	+2%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London	Jun 19	$6	+$7	+109%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+36%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$3	+$2	+47%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	May 18	$11	$0	+3%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Mar 19	$10	+$1	+7%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?	Mar 03	$5	−$1	-16%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?	Mar 02	$10	+$1	+8%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Jan 26	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	89¢	$21	1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner	BUY Leviatán Esports	20¢	$10	1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner	SELL Paper Rex	89¢	$80	1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner	BUY Paper Rex	91¢	$82	1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner	SELL Leviatán Esports	99¢	$83	2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY Leviatán Esports	92¢	$27	2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY Leviatán Esports	92¢	$50	2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	SELL Paper Rex	80¢	$77	3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Paper Rex	76¢	$74	3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL Team Falcons	59¢	$74	6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$77	11h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	SELL Manel Kape	100¢	$78	15h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	BUY Manel Kape	62¢	$49	17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	42¢	$21	26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner	SELL Leviatán Esports	100¢	$21	26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner	BUY Leviatán Esports	81¢	$17	27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner	SELL Leviatán Esports	99¢	$17	27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY Leviatán Esports	79¢	$14	27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner	SELL Leviatán Esports	100¢	$14	28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY Leviatán Esports	98¢	$14	28h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London	BUY Leviatán Esports	47¢	$6	2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl	BUY Leviatán Esports	73¢	$5	5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	SELL XLG Gaming	88¢	$5	6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner	BUY XLG Gaming	59¢	$3	6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	SELL No	93¢	$11	34d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY No	90¢	$11	94d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Anyones Legend	94¢	$10	110d
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?	SELL No	16¢	$4	110d
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?	BUY No	19¢	$5	110d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?	SELL Yes	95¢	$11	111d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.11 · official $23.11 (match) · 69 history records