Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc64d…2d28 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%38W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$5
politics 36% −$3
crypto 1% $0
other 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 63 +0.1% -9.4% 60% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses38 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage560d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April? May 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $298 in March? Apr 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January? Feb 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1400 in November? Dec 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 08 $1,779 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 08 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Nov 08 $1,736 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Sep 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Sep 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Solana above $130 on April 25? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 25? May 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $210 in March? Apr 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $1,802 −$2 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $907 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will ETHBTC be between .032-.033 on February 7? Feb 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Biden resign before inauguration? Jan 20 $3 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? Jan 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will LA wildfires burn 70-80k acres by Sunday? Jan 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 11 $2 $0 +1%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Grizzlies Dec 13 $17 $0 -1%
Kings vs. Rangers Dec 13 $9 $0 -0%
Dolphins vs. Texans Dec 13 $38 $0 +1%
Panthers vs. Flames Dec 13 $18 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? Dec 13 $11 $0 -1%
Predators vs. Stars Dec 12 $20 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Jazz Dec 12 $6 $0 -0%
Commanders vs. Saints Dec 12 $5 $0 -0%
Blackhawks vs. Islanders Dec 12 $19 $0 -0%
Penguins vs. Canadiens Dec 12 $32 $0 +1%
Red Wings vs. Flyers Dec 12 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $40 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 56d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 57d
Will Netflix reach $298 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 92d
Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in January? BUY No 100¢ $4 144d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January? BUY No 100¢ $37 145d
Will BNB reach $1400 in November? BUY No 100¢ $41 206d
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $1,777 225d
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $1,779 225d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,649 225d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,650 225d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,734 225d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 100¢ $1,736 225d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? BUY No 99¢ $12 249d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $2 298d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? BUY No 100¢ $3 329d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 360d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 391d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 391d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 98¢ $1 391d
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 392d
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 423d
Solana above $130 on April 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 423d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 430d
Will Solana hit $210 in March? BUY No 99¢ $3 454d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 454d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 465d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 465d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $900 475d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.28 · official $39.28 (match) · 187 history records