Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc645…0072 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$410 (+15%) realized +$410 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$360
sports 37% −$119
world 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +9.9% -0.6% 44% 31% -2.1%
≤30d 32 +9.9% -0.6% 44% 31% -2.1%
≤90d 32 +9.9% -0.6% 44% 31% -2.1%
all 32 +9.9% -0.6% 44% 31% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 31% -2.1%
10% -10.1% 28% -11.5%
15% -18.8% 16% -20.0%
20% -26.8% 12% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$37 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$410
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$78 -76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$7 -15%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$7 -7%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $302 +$34 +11%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $51 +$12 +24%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$92 +180%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $21 −$11 -56%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $51 −$15 -28%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $402 +$23 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $251 +$5 +2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $21 −$16 -78%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $151 +$41 +27%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $252 +$212 +84%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$28 +27%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$7 -24%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$81 +786%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $72 +$309 +431%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes $24 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 25¢ $44 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 32¢ $95 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $336 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 21h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 60¢ $63 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 24h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes $9 25h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $21 25h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No $10 41h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Over $37 42h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 10¢ $51 42h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 42h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 42h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 43h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $256 43h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 78¢ $212 43h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 43h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 35¢ $10 43h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 44h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $251 44h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records