Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc63c…142f world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
other 26% −$10
politics 17% $0
sports 14% $0
finance 3% +$3
economics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 26 +5.6% -4.5% 42% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 61 +2.3% -7.5% 39% 3% -9.4%
all 77 -2.4% -11.7% 35% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -9.8%
10% -20.2% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage486d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $76 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $49 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $62 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $72 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $114 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $14 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -20%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $87 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $76 +$3 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $24 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $4 $0 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $28 +$4 +14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $34 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $38 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $32 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $33 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $45 $0 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $66 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 48m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $13 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $40 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $40 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $37 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $37 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.10 (match) · 304 history records