Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C6 0xc63b…da3f world 585 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 172d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,713 (-6%) realized −$1,298 · open −$415
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%265W / 325L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$297
7 days−$379
14 days−$356
30 days−$429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$103
finance 32% −$271
sports 16% −$934
other 7% −$126
politics 1% +$56
crypto 0% −$16
economics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -70.0% -72.8% 13% 10% -32.7%
≤30d 75 -34.9% -41.1% 31% 24% -19.6%
≤90d 357 -15.4% -23.5% 42% 34% -15.5%
all 590 -5.6% -14.6% 45% 36% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 36% -11.8%
10% -22.7% 28% -20.2%
15% -30.2% 20% -27.9%
20% -37.0% 14% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$603
Realized−$1,298
Unrealized−$415
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses265 / 325
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions18
Markets (closed)590 / 585
History coverage172d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 590 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 54¢ 48¢ $194 $171 −$23 (-12%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $195 $113 −$82 (-42%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 96¢ $58 $96 +$37 (+64%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 43¢ 54¢ $43 $54 +$11 (+25%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 55¢ 94¢ $28 $47 +$19 (+70%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 29¢ 31¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $27 $22 −$4 (-17%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 51¢ 63¢ $10 $13 +$2 (+24%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $25 $12 −$13 (-51%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 55¢ 1¢ $301 $8 −$293 (-97%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $11 $4 −$8 (-69%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 40¢ 1¢ $60 $2 −$59 (-97%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Raptors vs. Wizards Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukra Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Another US military action against Iran before 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bill Clinton confirmed pedophile by December 31? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 6? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Kings vs. Heat Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Nets vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Raptors Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Epstein confirmed as foreign agent in 2025? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 17 $200 −$81 -41%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -74%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $720 −$6 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $32 +$8 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $285 −$96 -34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 08 $16 −$1 -5%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 06 $156 +$10 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $14 −$14 -99%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? May 29 $4 −$3 -68%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? May 29 $33 −$3 -10%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? May 29 $42 −$5 -13%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 29 $18 +$4 +21%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks be the 2026 NBA Finals May 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $45 −$7 -15%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $5 +$3 +65%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MV May 26 $14 −$3 -19%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 26 $5 −$1 -10%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $5 +$4 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $16 +$7 +46%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 25 $61 +$17 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 0m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1m
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 12m
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 15m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 16m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 17m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $60 30m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $41 34m
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 56m
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? SELL No 99¢ $15 57m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 59m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 1h
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 1h
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 1h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $30 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $28 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $602.67 · official $602.67 (match) · 3500 history records