Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:14:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C6 0xc63a…b9b1 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 295d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$114 (-30%) realized −$113 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 295d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$14
politics 30% −$75
sports 20% $0
crypto 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +81.2% +63.9% 25% 25% -12.1%
≤30d 4 +81.2% +63.9% 25% 25% -12.1%
≤90d 4 +81.2% +63.9% 25% 25% -12.1%
all 6 +37.4% +24.3% 17% 17% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.3% 17% -34.8%
10% +12.4% 17% -41.1%
15% +1.5% 17% -46.8%
20% -8.4% 17% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$29 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage295d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $12 +$63 +509%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $103 −$25 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $37 −$22 -60%
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Sep 08 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Sep 07 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 2026 BUY 36¢ $15 45m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 58m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Jap BUY 16¢ $11 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY 13¢ $15 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? AND Will BUY 5¢ $34 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $37 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 10d
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi BUY Yes 7¢ $36 294d
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi BUY Yes 7¢ $39 295d
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio SELL Yes 93¢ $39 295d
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio BUY Yes 93¢ $39 295d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.06 · official $28.77 · 34 history records