Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc639…c5a2 other 1134 markets active 3h ago coverage 233d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 232d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,744 (+0%) realized +$7,186 · open −$442
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate86%965W / 155L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,222per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$28,631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 233d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$3,430
other 15% −$1,401
politics 12% −$824
crypto 10% −$2,255
sports 3% −$203
economics 3% +$713
tech 3% +$499
culture 1% +$574
finance 0% +$6
weather 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -12.7% -21.1% 61% 13% -10.5%
≤30d 97 +1.2% -8.5% 71% 26% -9.0%
≤90d 225 +0.2% -9.4% 77% 27% -7.4%
all 1120 -0.5% -10.0% 86% 18% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 18% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 10% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 6% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,400) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$374 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$28,631
Realized+$7,186
Unrealized−$442
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses965 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1120 / 1134
History coverage233d ⚠
Avg bet$2,222
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $23,000 $22,847 −$153 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 95¢ $4,645 $4,475 −$170 (-4%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 82¢ 76¢ $460 $428 −$32 (-7%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 84¢ 76¢ $210 $189 −$21 (-10%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 75¢ 100¢ $100 $133 +$33 (+33%)
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 74¢ $104 $113 +$9 (+9%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 37¢ 30¢ $44 $37 −$8 (-18%)
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? No 66¢ 73¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+11%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 26¢ 2¢ $114 $11 −$103 (-91%)
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $27,687 −$269 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $43,802 +$3,610 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $5,766 −$3,923 -68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $980 −$41 -4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $950 −$1 -0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $290 +$19 +6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $201 −$1 -1%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $81 +$20 +24%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Jun 12 $80 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $187 +$6 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $300 +$1 +0%
Humbert vs. Bonzi: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $51 +$31 +62%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1,001 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,366 +$172 +13%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 10 $5,000 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $21,000 +$118 +1%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $300 +$1 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $2,002 +$41 +2%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $511 −$511 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 09 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,962 −$2,879 -97%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1,200 +$19 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,300 +$20 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $6 +$3 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 08 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 08 $200 +$3 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $501 +$30 +6%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $1,300 +$36 +3%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $2,003 +$102 +5%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4,493 +$87 +2%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $492 −$145 -29%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $245 on June 4? Jun 04 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2,001 +$19 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $300 +$16 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $30,162 −$363 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $1,310 −$63 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $28,296 $0 +0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $1,213 −$505 -42%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $136 −$2 -1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $106 +$4 +4%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$8 +164%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $23,000 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $5,796 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $17,245 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $23,000 5h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $23,265 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $607 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $603 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $1,000 13h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $1,000 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $2,004 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1,843 14h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 23¢ $1,842 14h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $886 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $886 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $844 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $2 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $88 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $935 19h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $950 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $949 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $89 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $21 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $110 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $319 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $309 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $200 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $90 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $199 2d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 80¢ $61 3d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 80¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,630.85 · official $28,630.85 (match) · 3500 history records