Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

C6 0xc638…db10 sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$71 (-25%) realized −$71 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate39%9W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day10.4pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit93%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)+20.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+32.9%	+20.3%	39%	39%	-12.2%
≤30d	23	+32.9%	+20.3%	39%	39%	-12.2%
≤90d	23	+32.9%	+20.3%	39%	39%	-12.2%
all	23	+32.9%	+20.3%	39%	39%	-12.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.3%	39%	-12.2%
10%	+8.8%	39%	-20.6%
15%	-1.7%	30%	-28.3%
20%	-11.4%	26%	-35.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -25% → late +86% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.94 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$71

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)39%

Wins / losses9 / 14

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 28

History coverage4d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day10.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$25	+$9	+36%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$6	−$5	-82%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$10	−$6	-60%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$25	+$9	+34%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$24	−$24	-100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: F	Jun 23	$2	+$27	+1119%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$15	+$13	+84%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$7	+$8	+114%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$8	−$5	-63%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$8	−$4	-47%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	Jun 21	$27	−$24	-91%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$10	+$9	+89%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$20	+$7	+32%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	Jun 20	$2	+$4	+220%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$10	−$9	-86%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$4	−$4	-96%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi	Jun 20	$9	+$23	+253%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	100¢	$34	5m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5	SELL Over	5¢	$1	5m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	73¢	$25	31m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5	BUY Over	27¢	$6	32m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	9¢	$1	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	24¢	$3	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$34	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	73¢	$25	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	40¢	$10	1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: O/U	BUY	17¢	$8	11h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	63¢	$24	21h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5	BUY	53¢	$15	21h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$15	23h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	46¢	$7	24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	19¢	$3	24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	26¢	$4	24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$8	28h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$8	28h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: F	BUY	8¢	$2	34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	8¢	$2	2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY	10¢	$4	2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egy	BUY	20¢	$4	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	32¢	$10	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$18	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	84¢	$27	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$27	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	73¢	$12	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	52¢	$10	2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	76¢	$8	2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	44¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $8.00 · 47 history records