Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:07:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc634…9536 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$2
other 27% $0
politics 19% −$6
crypto 8% −$1
economics 7% $0
culture 3% +$1
sports 2% $0
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 46% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 46% 0% -9.2%
all 43 -4.4% -13.5% 30% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage319d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $111 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2 $0 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 13 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 13 $125 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 290–304 times August 8–August 15? Aug 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 12 $30 −$6 -20%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on Augu Aug 10 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Aug 06 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 06 $90 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $20 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $20 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.56 · official $33.56 (match) · 150 history records