Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C6 0xc631…6d74 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$968 (+121%) realized +$981 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip

Net edge+35%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+35.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+49.4%	+35.2%	40%	40%	+227.4%
≤30d	5	+49.4%	+35.2%	40%	40%	+227.4%
≤90d	5	+49.4%	+35.2%	40%	40%	+227.4%
all	5	+49.4%	+35.2%	40%	40%	+227.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+35.2%	40%	+227.4%
10%	+22.3%	40%	+196.1%
15%	+10.4%	40%	+167.5%
20%	-0.4%	20%	+141.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +262% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +49% · $-wt +262% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$521 vs −$24 · ×21.89 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×14.6 per $1 lost it wins $14.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage

Net worth$402

Realized+$981

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Open positions6

Markets (closed)5 / 11

History coverage15d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	15¢	$99	$111	+$12 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$97	$99	+$2 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	4¢	$99	$77	−$22 (-22%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 21	$197	+$1,003	+510%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 21	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 20	$102	+$38	+37%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	20h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	20h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$100	28h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$102	3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$102	3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	32¢	$140	5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	SELL Yes	33¢	$141	5d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	13d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	14d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$51	14d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	23¢	$102	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.96 · official $401.96 (match) · 19 history records