Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C6 0xc631…0763 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$3 (+18%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$3
other 36% +$2
crypto 20% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +25.1% +13.2% 67% 67% +24.6%
≤30d 3 +25.1% +13.2% 67% 67% +24.6%
≤90d 3 +25.1% +13.2% 67% 67% +24.6%
all 3 +25.1% +13.2% 67% 67% +24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.2% 67% +24.6%
10% +2.4% 67% +12.7%
15% -7.5% 67% +1.8%
20% -16.6% 67% -8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +118%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 15m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.73 · official $8.73 (match) · 9 history records