Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc630…37c5 other 20 markets active 22h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$8
crypto 38% +$8
world 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -59.2% -63.1% 11% 11% -71.0%
≤30d 9 -59.2% -63.1% 11% 11% -71.0%
≤90d 9 -59.2% -63.1% 11% 11% -71.0%
all 17 +7.2% -3.1% 41% 41% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 41% -10.7%
10% -12.3% 29% -19.3%
15% -20.8% 29% -27.1%
20% -28.6% 24% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage126d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +149%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 12 $2 +$10 +516%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 11 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 11 $1 +$1 +114%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Racing Club win on 2026-02-14? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 122d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14? BUY No 46¢ $5 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 124d
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? SELL Yes $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 124d
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? BUY Yes $1 125d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 14? BUY No 42¢ $1 125d
Will Racing Club win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 126d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? SELL Yes $1 126d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY Yes $1 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.36 · official $4.36 (match) · 41 history records