Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C6 0xc62d…8fd8 sports 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,776 (-5%) realized −$4,776 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%72W / 84L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$557per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$975est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$551
7 days−$2,436
14 days+$931
30 days+$4,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$4,707
other 18% −$3,595
world 2% +$1,996
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.9% -22.1% 33% 33% -99.4%
≤30d 20 +55.8% +41.0% 70% 70% +14.6%
≤90d 131 -7.1% -15.9% 44% 44% -19.2%
all 156 -4.6% -13.7% 46% 46% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 46% -16.1%
10% -21.9% 46% -24.1%
15% -29.5% 46% -31.4%
20% -36.4% 44% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$711) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$570 vs −$564 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,776
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses72 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$975
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 158
History coverage121d
Avg bet$557
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 27 $562 −$551 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $6 +$9 +158%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,894 −$1,894 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,794 +$2,044 +114%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $559 +$565 +101%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $731 +$738 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $911 +$753 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $732 −$732 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $715 +$815 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $707 +$353 +50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $468 +$267 +57%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $589 +$1,333 +226%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 06 $662 −$662 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $607 +$644 +106%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $476 +$612 +129%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $10 +$30 +307%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $2,141 +$2,353 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2,132 −$2,132 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $284 −$284 -100%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 May 26 $588 −$588 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 25 $243 −$243 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 May 25 $595 −$595 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $254 +$341 +134%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 24 $597 −$597 -100%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5 May 24 $886 −$886 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $613 −$613 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 May 24 $905 −$905 -100%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $531 −$531 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $500 −$500 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 May 23 $986 +$514 +52%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 23 $989 +$901 +91%
FC CFR 1907 Cluj vs. FC Argeș Pitești: O/U 1.5 May 23 $930 +$1,091 +117%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $1,152 −$1,152 -100%
FC Famalicão vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5 May 17 $405 −$405 -100%
CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $509 +$682 +134%
Samsunspor vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 2.5 May 17 $600 +$839 +140%
FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 1.5 May 16 $508 −$508 -100%
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 May 16 $274 −$274 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund leading at halftime? May 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2,000 +$2,098 +105%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $973 +$1,023 +105%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $1,897 −$1,897 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5 May 13 $1,102 +$800 +73%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
AC Sparta Praha vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 1.5 May 13 $1,298 −$1,298 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5 May 12 $509 +$403 +79%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 12 $678 −$678 -100%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) May 11 $874 +$1,802 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $562 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 17¢ $421 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 31¢ $15 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $6 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1,894 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1,794 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $559 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $911 11d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $731 11d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $732 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $715 15d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $707 15d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $468 16d
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $589 21d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $662 21d
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $607 21d
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $476 22d
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 24d
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2,141 24d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $284 28d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 29d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2,125 32d
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 32d
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $486 32d
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $595 34d
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $243 34d
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $254 34d
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $597 34d
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $886 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 324 history records