Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc629…42cf sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-5%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$15
other 42% −$22
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 100% +4.5%
≤30d 1 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 100% +4.5%
≤90d 1 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 100% +4.5%
all 19 +4.5% -5.5% 68% 63% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 63% -12.3%
10% -14.5% 37% -20.7%
15% -22.8% 11% -28.4%
20% -30.3% 5% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage171d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $45 +$7 +16%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jan 27 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 27 $19 +$2 +11%
Kings vs. Knicks Jan 27 $19 $0 -1%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 27 $14 +$6 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 G Jan 26 $10 +$3 +33%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Jan 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Jan 26 $8 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jan 26 $7 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qua Jan 26 $7 $0 -1%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Leagu Jan 26 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Bulls vs. Celtics Jan 06 $22 +$5 +24%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jan 06 $3 −$1 -31%
Timberwolves vs. Wizards Jan 05 $18 +$4 +24%
Packers vs. Vikings Jan 04 $17 +$4 +23%
Timberwolves vs. Heat Jan 04 $9 +$7 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $45 8h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY AM Gaming 55¢ $21 147d
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY LNG Esports 90¢ $19 147d
Kings vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 84¢ $19 147d
Kings vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 85¢ $19 147d
76ers vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 71¢ $14 147d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 G BUY Team Nemesis 75¢ $10 148d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $10 148d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 BUY Power Rangers 90¢ $9 148d
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? SELL Yes 88¢ $6 148d
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 148d
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 87¢ $6 148d
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 148d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: SELL REKONIX 78¢ $9 148d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: BUY REKONIX 67¢ $8 148d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S SELL Nemiga 100¢ $8 148d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S BUY Nemiga 88¢ $7 148d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qua SELL Vici Gaming 89¢ $7 148d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qua BUY Vici Gaming 90¢ $7 148d
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Leagu SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $7 148d
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Leagu BUY T1 Academy 77¢ $5 148d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? BUY Yes 71¢ $29 168d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 168d
Bulls vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 81¢ $22 169d
Timberwolves vs. Wizards BUY Timberwolves 81¢ $18 169d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 169d
Packers vs. Vikings SELL Vikings 100¢ $21 169d
Packers vs. Vikings BUY Vikings 81¢ $17 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.31 · official $51.31 (match) · 38 history records