Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C6 0xc627…47b2 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$211 (-5%) realized −$221 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.5% -11.8% 83% 67% -12.6%
≤30d 12 -2.5% -11.8% 83% 67% -12.6%
≤90d 12 -2.5% -11.8% 83% 67% -12.6%
all 12 -2.5% -11.8% 83% 67% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 67% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 8% -21.0%
15% -27.9% 0% -28.6%
20% -35.0% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$324 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set 3 Winner: Nakashima vs Jones Nakashima 78¢ 80¢ $400 $410 +$10 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 29 $402 +$36 +9%
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 29 $351 +$47 +13%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $301 +$36 +12%
Set 1 Winner: Linette vs Andreeva Jun 29 $301 +$51 +17%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $302 +$61 +20%
Set 3 Winner: Cilic vs Medvedev Jun 29 $302 +$60 +20%
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Jacquemot (+1.5) Jun 29 $189 +$60 +32%
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $301 +$25 +8%
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart Jun 29 $448 +$76 +17%
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Dart (+1.5) Jun 29 $331 −$328 -99%
Set Handicap: Tien (-2.5) vs Svrcina (+2.5) Jun 29 $322 −$320 -99%
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 29 $301 +$65 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 3 Winner: Nakashima vs Jones BUY Nakashima 78¢ $403 18m
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 95¢ $438 25m
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 87¢ $402 38m
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 100¢ $398 44m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $337 50m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $301 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 88¢ $351 1h
Set 1 Winner: Linette vs Andreeva SELL Andreeva 100¢ $352 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $362 1h
Set 1 Winner: Linette vs Andreeva BUY Andreeva 85¢ $301 2h
Set 3 Winner: Cilic vs Medvedev SELL Medvedev 100¢ $361 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $302 2h
Set 3 Winner: Cilic vs Medvedev BUY Medvedev 83¢ $302 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $326 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 92¢ $301 5h
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Jacquemot (+1.5) BUY Osaka 75¢ $189 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart SELL Jelena Ostapenko 100¢ $524 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Jelena Ostapenko 85¢ $448 5h
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Dart (+1.5) BUY Ostapenko 70¢ $331 7h
Set Handicap: Tien (-2.5) vs Svrcina (+2.5) BUY Tien 75¢ $322 8h
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic SELL Belinda Bencic 99¢ $366 8h
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic BUY Belinda Bencic 81¢ $301 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.00 · official $410.01 (match) · 23 history records