Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc626…2bea sports 190 markets active 2h ago coverage 676d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$68,571 (-45%) realized −$68,584 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%71W / 114L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$798per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days−$924
14 days−$565
30 days−$565
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$72,449
sports 14% −$1,546
other 10% +$5,285
world 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -52.6% -57.1% 29% 19% -44.0%
≤30d 24 -36.1% -42.2% 38% 29% -27.6%
≤90d 38 -44.0% -49.3% 32% 26% -53.4%
all 185 -20.3% -27.9% 38% 36% -51.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 36% -51.5%
10% -34.8% 34% -56.1%
15% -41.1% 32% -60.4%
20% -46.9% 30% -64.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -16% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$761 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

676d coverage
Net worth$2,313
Realized−$68,584
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses71 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions5
Markets (closed)185 / 190
History coverage676d
Avg bet$798
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $800 $806 +$6 (+1%)
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $637 $609 −$28 (-4%)
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals No 86¢ 84¢ $400 $393 −$7 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $264 $307 +$43 (+16%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 27 $101 +$95 +94%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $551 +$153 +28%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$131 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $103 +$5 +5%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $175 −$16 -9%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 22 $497 −$497 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $415 −$415 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $38 +$17 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$154 +101%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $25 +$23 +89%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $463 +$528 +114%
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers Apr 11 $986 −$986 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Apr 11 $130 −$130 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers Apr 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 07 $150 −$150 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Apr 06 $120 −$120 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Apr 05 $105 +$98 +93%
Patriots vs. Broncos Apr 05 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Nick Emmanwori win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Apr 05 $43 −$43 -100%
Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.5 Apr 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Rams (-3.5) Apr 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 29 $600 +$417 +70%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $2,200 +$4,703 +214%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 20 $200 +$108 +54%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 18 $100 −$85 -85%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $200 −$174 -87%
49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.5 Jan 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) Jan 18 $500 +$564 +113%
Miami vs. Ohio State Jan 13 $211 −$211 -100%
Up Only podcast released by December 31? Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $126 +$84 +67%
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5 Jan 13 $200 +$185 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY No 86¢ $200 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $199 1h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY No 86¢ $201 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $194 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $101 17h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 71¢ $807 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 17h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $503 17h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 42h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $111 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $27 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $47 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $54 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $108 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $54 3d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $154 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $72 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,312.94 · official $2,312.94 (match) · 899 history records