Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C6 0xc626…9437 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-6%) realized −$91 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$368
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -42.5% -48.0% 29% 29% -42.9%
≤30d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 50% -16.7%
≤90d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 50% -16.7%
all 10 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 50% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 50% -16.7%
10% -18.7% 50% -24.7%
15% -26.6% 50% -31.9%
20% -33.8% 50% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$137 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage10d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $155 −$153 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $142 −$140 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $137 −$135 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $138 −$136 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $122 −$120 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $122 +$128 +105%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $193 +$187 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $93 +$87 +93%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $81 +$82 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $142 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $155 13h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $142 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $137 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $138 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $122 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $122 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $193 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 8d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $93 8d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $81 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.60 · official $138.60 (match) · 16 history records