Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc625…bc9c other 18 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-7%) realized −$7 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$16
crypto 19% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -52.9% -57.4% 0% 0% -57.4%
≤30d 1 -52.9% -57.4% 0% 0% -57.4%
≤90d 1 -52.9% -57.4% 0% 0% -57.4%
all 1 -52.9% -57.4% 0% 0% -57.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.4% 0% -57.4%
10% -61.5% 0% -61.5%
15% -65.2% 0% -65.2%
20% -68.6% 0% -68.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+88%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+57%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.18 · official $238.88 (match) · 25 history records