Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C6 0xc622…e1a4 other 93 markets active 4h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$64 (+18%) realized +$68 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%30W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$59
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$64
crypto 27% −$3
sports 4% $0
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +96.0% +77.3% 60% 60% +126.7%
≤30d 11 +78.2% +61.2% 55% 55% +121.0%
≤90d 72 +16.8% +5.7% 31% 26% +2.6%
all 85 +17.6% +6.4% 35% 31% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 31% +7.8%
10% -3.8% 27% -2.5%
15% -13.1% 22% -11.9%
20% -21.6% 21% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses30 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)85 / 93
History coverage98d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-43%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$6 +187%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +136%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$37 +588%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $1 +$5 +478%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $1 +$5 +502%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $7 −$3 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 05 $1 +$7 +701%
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in April 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $23 −$20 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $2 +$3 +143%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 02 $6 +$28 +443%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $3 +$48 +1616%
Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in April 2026? Mar 31 $4 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Mar 31 $1 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $4 −$2 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 30 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 29 $9 −$8 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 29 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 26 $11 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $9 4h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 42¢ $5 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $18 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will N BUY 36¢ $3 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $11 24h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR BUY 23¢ $3 46h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 47h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $31 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $13 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06 BUY 14¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.64 · official $16.64 (match) · 200 history records