Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc620…7a70 crypto 640 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,804 (-4%) realized −$1,804 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%286W / 354L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$199est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$476
7 days−$166
14 days+$120
30 days+$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$516
sports 20% −$721
other 8% −$213
world 6% +$27
finance 6% −$309
politics 4% −$864
tech 1% −$32
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +2.1% -7.6% 43% 38% -12.7%
≤30d 217 +4.7% -5.2% 48% 41% -5.1%
≤90d 433 -7.3% -16.2% 43% 35% -14.0%
all 640 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 36% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 36% -14.3%
10% -25.0% 31% -22.5%
15% -32.3% 28% -30.0%
20% -38.9% 23% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$41 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,804
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses286 / 354
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$199
Open positions0
Markets (closed)640 / 640
History coverage238d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 640 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $44 +$156 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $57 −$57 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $236 −$236 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $177 +$170 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 22 $184 −$10 -5%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $115 −$60 -52%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $44 −$5 -12%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 22 $192 −$93 -48%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $124 −$124 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $470 +$30 +6%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $82 −$23 -28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $50 +$50 +100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $42 +$58 +140%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $21 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $38 +$7 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $101 +$49 +49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $42 −$2 -6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $84 +$104 +124%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $32 +$68 +212%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $18 +$13 +72%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $51 +$49 +96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 19 $93 −$93 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$71 +70%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $100 +$104 +104%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) Jun 18 $87 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $213 +$9 +4%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $47 +$53 +112%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 17 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $23 +$8 +33%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $200 +$15 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $120 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $22 +$18 +82%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $2 −$1 -35%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $38 −$10 -27%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $76 +$68 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $44 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $57 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2364 history records