Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C6 0xc61f…35a6 sports 39 markets active 7h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$561 (+48%) realized +$561 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate74%29W / 10L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day55.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$383
other 41% +$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +38.9% +25.7% 74% 72% +33.1%
≤30d 39 +38.9% +25.7% 74% 72% +33.1%
≤90d 39 +38.9% +25.7% 74% 72% +33.1%
all 39 +38.9% +25.7% 74% 72% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.7% 72% +33.1%
10% ← realistic here +13.6% 67% +20.4%
15% +2.7% 49% +8.7%
20% -7.4% 41% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.88 per $1 lost it wins $4.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$561
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses29 / 10
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day55.9
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $84 +$33 +40%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $56 +$13 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $87 +$85 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $23 +$32 +137%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$17 +39%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 +$23 +64%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $37 +$72 +197%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$45 +56%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $80 +$20 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $45 +$52 +114%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$35 +97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 +$36 +388%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$5 -61%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 +$9 +216%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +83%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$17 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$34 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $77 +$75 +97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$16 +23%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 +$7 +172%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 +$14 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 +$35 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 +$3 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $8 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $6 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $12 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 9h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $5 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $5 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 10h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $10 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 10h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $26 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $24 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $5 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $8 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $23 11h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $25 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $5 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $8 12h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $1 13h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records