Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc61e…0f34 other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,148 (+1%) realized +$1,148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate29%35W / 85L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$968per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$780now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$16
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$46
other 36% +$77
sports 18% +$1,149
culture 4% −$6
world 2% −$35
crypto 2% +$2
economics 1% −$6
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 -16.8% -24.8% 11% 3% -8.7%
all 120 -1.7% -11.1% 29% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 10% -8.6%
10% -19.6% 10% -17.4%
15% -27.3% 8% -25.4%
20% -34.5% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,352) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$9 · ×5.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$780
Realized+$1,148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses35 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage141d
Avg bet$968
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $567 $567 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $213 $213 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,928 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,341 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $929 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,000 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,941 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $967 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,986 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,872 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $361 +$1 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $3,910 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $3,167 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $2,310 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? May 19 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,013 −$3 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $722 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $914 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $313 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 01 $309 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 01 $332 +$2 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $2,441 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,444 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $4,364 −$4 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,322 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,703 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $6,811 −$7 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5) Apr 07 $1,274 +$1,381 +108%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-08? Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-02-14? Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Heat vs. Pelicans Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Canadiens vs. Jets Mar 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Mar 27 $55 −$55 -100%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-03-07? Mar 27 $78 −$78 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $567 44h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $764 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $765 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $884 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $885 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $864 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $865 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $927 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $929 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $813 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $814 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $968 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $970 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $979 10d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $981 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $962 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $963 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $888 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $889 12d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $966 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $967 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $767 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $769 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $642 17d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $643 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $779.82 · official $779.82 (match) · 377 history records