Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C6 0xc61d…3933 sports 918 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,811 (-15%) realized −$22,767 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%284W / 633L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Fees−$2,017est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$505
7 days−$5,913
14 days−$5,798
30 days−$4,799
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$8,582
other 14% +$814
crypto 9% −$4,907
tech 0% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -54.9% -59.2% 15% 15% -44.8%
≤30d 116 -34.7% -41.0% 22% 22% -37.1%
≤90d 917 -18.8% -26.6% 31% 31% -16.8%
all 917 -18.8% -26.6% 31% 31% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 31% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 31% -24.8%
15% -40.0% 30% -32.1%
20% -45.9% 29% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$270 vs −$141 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$22,767
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses284 / 633
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$2,017
Open positions1
Markets (closed)917 / 918
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$171
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 917 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 24¢ 2¢ $48 $4 −$44 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $8 +$41 +550%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $276 −$276 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $235 −$231 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $143 −$140 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $279 +$401 +144%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $530 −$530 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $218 −$218 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $430 −$430 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $652 −$652 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $878 −$878 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $765 −$765 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $245 +$339 +138%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $19 +$81 +426%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $220 +$280 +127%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $240 +$260 +108%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $450 −$450 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $490 −$490 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $430 −$430 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $320 +$480 +150%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $165 +$407 +246%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 24¢ $49 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 15¢ $8 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $106 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $171 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $235 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $204 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $143 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $103 23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $279 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $41 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 26¢ $208 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $198 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $12 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $310 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 14¢ $16 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 14¢ $24 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 14¢ $24 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $15 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $75 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $150 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $321 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $99 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $35 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $8 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $25 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $210 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $72 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $338 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $78 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.86 · official $3.86 (match) · 3500 history records