Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc618…0b85 other 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 732d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$618 (+9%) realized +$618 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%99W / 94L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$772
sports 2% −$53
world 2% −$70
politics 1% −$23
economics 0% −$21
tech 0% +$4
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.0% -17.7% 57% 57% -27.1%
≤30d 14 -25.2% -32.3% 50% 50% -30.1%
≤90d 33 +5.0% -5.0% 58% 58% -2.3%
all 193 +5.3% -4.7% 51% 51% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 51% -1.1%
10% -13.8% 48% -10.6%
15% -22.1% 41% -19.2%
20% -29.8% 33% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

732d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$618
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses99 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)193 / 197
History coverage732d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 +$49 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? May 31 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $46 −$46 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $22 +$4 +20%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $45 +$26 +57%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $69 +$23 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $37 +$23 +62%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $237 +$73 +31%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $10 +$17 +165%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $34 +$24 +70%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 07 $40 −$6 -16%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 04 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $20 +$70 +344%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $78 +$49 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $112 +$66 +60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $170 +$41 +24%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 21 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $118 −$117 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $150 +$160 +107%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $74 +$90 +121%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Mar 30 $100 −$99 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $140 +$35 +25%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $87 +$53 +61%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Mar 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $149 +$37 +25%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $30 +$18 +61%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 08 $29 −$29 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $69 +$41 +59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $100 +$49 +49%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $129 +$41 +32%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $10 +$9 +87%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-21? Feb 23 $10 +$28 +285%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-22? Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-02-21? Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-21? Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $24 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $99 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 19¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 31¢ $14 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 16d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 16d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 60¢ $20 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 79¢ $26 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 83¢ $22 18d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 24d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 24d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $69 30d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 30d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $237 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 40d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 23¢ $34 40d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 40d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 40d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 40d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 43d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $58 43d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 46d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 61¢ $78 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.66 · official $46.66 (match) · 315 history records