Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C6
0xc617…0d15
other · 281 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5,368 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,424 · open −$1,979
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$66
Realized−$4,424
Unrealized−$1,979
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses6 / 313
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions189
Markets (closed)319 / 281
History coverage1d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day3119.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 189 History 319 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,424
7 days−$4,424
14 days−$4,424
30 days−$4,424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? No 96¢ 96¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 8¢ 79¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+923%)
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 33¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+753%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 3¢ 60¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+2259%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 60¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+197%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 32¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+215%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Yes 8¢ 40¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+426%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+42%)
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $143 $1 −$141 (-99%)
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $143 $1 −$141 (-99%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $143 $1 −$141 (-99%)
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $143 $1 −$141 (-99%)
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $116 $1 −$114 (-99%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $106 $1 −$105 (-99%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $98 $1 −$97 (-99%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $98 $1 −$97 (-99%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $96 $1 −$95 (-99%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $96 $1 −$95 (-99%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-76%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $38 $1 −$37 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Desmond Bane win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 10? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 7? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jose Alvarado win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Landry Shamet win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $19 −$21 -107%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 14 $10 −$11 -112%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.50–$1.75 in May? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Josh Hart win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -103%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on June 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will James Harden win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $20 −$21 -102%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–$3.50 in May? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jalen Johnson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -148%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 80°F or higher on Jun Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 7? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 8? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$79 -4439%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$6 -396%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on June 8? Jun 14 $1 −$2 -267%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C on June 10? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scottie Barnes win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Jamal Murray win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$6 -396%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 7? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 38°C or higher on June Jun 14 $1 −$2 -243%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on June 8? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% −$3,056
tech 20% −$33
economics 18% +$6
politics 5% +$5
sports 3% −$138
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 94¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 96¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 85¢ $6 16m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 96¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 44¢ $3 16m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 90¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 94¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 90¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 96¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 85¢ $6 16m
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $7 16m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 44¢ $3 16m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 96¢ $7 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-85.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 319 -84.1% -85.6% 2% 2% -98.6%
≤30d 319 -84.1% -85.6% 2% 2% -98.6%
≤90d 319 -84.1% -85.6% 2% 2% -98.6%
all 319 -84.1% -85.6% 2% 2% -98.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3119.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -85.6% 2% -98.6%
10% ← realistic here -87.0% 1% -98.7%
15% -88.3% 1% -98.9%
20% -89.4% 1% -99.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.29 · official $66.29 (match) · 3500 history records