trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $7,649 | $8,200 | +$551 (+7%) |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Knicks | 31¢ | 0¢ | $93 | $0 | −$93 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $95 | −$93 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $306 | +$291 | +95% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 04 | $1,081 | +$508 | +47% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $764 | −$725 | -95% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 27 | $8,697 | −$807 | -9% |
| Nuggets vs. Warriors | Apr 25 | $2,359 | −$2,355 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Lakers | Feb 23 | $2,414 | −$788 | -33% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Feb 22 | $1,630 | +$30 | +2% |
| Cavaliers vs. Thunder | Feb 22 | $816 | −$595 | -73% |
| Pistons vs. Bulls | Feb 22 | $160 | +$40 | +25% |
| Rockets vs. Knicks | Feb 22 | $50 | −$49 | -97% |
| Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers | Feb 21 | $211 | +$189 | +90% |
| Cavaliers vs. Hornets | Feb 21 | $465 | +$235 | +50% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Feb 04 | $3,689 | −$861 | -23% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Feb 01 | $72,264 | +$172,512 | +239% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | Jan 16 | $56 | −$56 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Warriors | Jan 16 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Rockets | Jan 15 | $62 | −$2 | -3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 12 | $142 | +$18 | +12% |
| Hawks vs. Warriors | Jan 12 | $64 | +$12 | +19% |
| Bucks vs. Nuggets | Jan 12 | $49 | +$22 | +45% |
| Heat vs. Thunder | Jan 12 | $38 | −$28 | -74% |
| Knicks vs. Trail Blazers | Jan 12 | $40 | −$22 | -56% |
| Spurs vs. Celtics | Jan 11 | $46 | +$54 | +117% |
| Clippers vs. Pistons | Jan 11 | $40 | +$59 | +148% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 13 | $338 | −$88 | -26% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 50% | 50% | +35.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -12.5% | -20.8% | 40% | 40% | -16.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -27.0% | -34.0% | 33% | 33% | -31.2% |
| all | 26 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 46% | 42% | +148.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -9.5% | 42% | +148.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -18.2% | 35% | +124.3% |
| 15% | -26.1% | 31% | +102.6% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 23% | +82.8% |