Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc616…dca7 weather 933 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$362 (+1%) realized +$360 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%905W / 11L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day83.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$78
14 days−$5
30 days+$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 323 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 910 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 916 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.1%
all 916 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$26 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$360
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses905 / 11
Open positions16
Markets (closed)916 / 933
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day83.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 916 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 28? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 28? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? Jun 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 28? Jun 28 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 27? Jun 28 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 28 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 27? Jun 28 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 28 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 39m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $34 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.78 · official $295.78 (match) · 3500 history records