Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc616…4e95 other 464 markets active 0h ago coverage 735d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%149W / 308L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$3
other 4% −$2
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
world 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 51 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 137 -0.9% -10.4% 26% 1% -9.6%
all 457 -0.8% -10.3% 33% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

735d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses149 / 308
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)457 / 464
History coverage735d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Jun 16 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 15 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 13 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 09 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 07 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 06 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 04 $90 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Chainlink reach $14 in May? May 30 $90 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 29 $90 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? May 28 $90 $0 +0%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May? May 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? May 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 21 $90 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in May? May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May? May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May? May 20 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? BUY No 100¢ $12 6m
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 99¢ $90 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 23h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 23h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 23h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 23h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 23h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 23h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 23h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $15 39h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $5 40h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 41h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $88 41h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $19 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $90 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $20 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $90 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $89 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $90 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $90 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? SELL No 99¢ $89 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.72 · official $106.72 (match) · 981 history records