trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 42% | 25% | +7.4% |
| all | 14 | -5.5% | -14.5% | 43% | 29% | +6.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -14.5% | 29% | +6.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -22.7% | 21% | -3.3% |
| 15% | -30.2% | 14% | -12.7% |
| 20% | -37.0% | 14% | -21.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | $66,993 | $70,093 | +$3,100 (+5%) |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | No | 76¢ | 97¢ | $6,715 | $8,519 | +$1,804 (+27%) |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 6¢ | $25,000 | $8,113 | −$16,887 (-68%) |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 70¢ | 72¢ | $7,752 | $8,071 | +$320 (+4%) |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 14¢ | $9,741 | $5,464 | −$4,277 (-44%) |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 41¢ | 16¢ | $4,941 | $1,867 | −$3,073 (-62%) |
| US takes Panama Canal before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 12¢ | $988 | $1,202 | +$214 (+22%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 24¢ | 10¢ | $2,518 | $1,002 | −$1,516 (-60%) |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 20¢ | $1,148 | $937 | −$211 (-18%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 4¢ | $1,599 | $770 | −$829 (-52%) |
| US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? | No | 74¢ | 92¢ | $480 | $597 | +$117 (+24%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $200 | $150 | −$50 (-25%) |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Yes | 27¢ | 1¢ | $2,761 | $136 | −$2,625 (-95%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $210 | −$202 | -96% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | May 09 | $3,000 | +$7,861 | +262% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Apr 30 | $4,971 | +$314 | +6% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | Apr 24 | $5,573 | −$1,376 | -25% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Apr 20 | $2,158 | −$798 | -37% |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Apr 11 | $2,701 | −$1,473 | -54% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Apr 10 | $700 | −$399 | -57% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 05 | $6,113 | −$2,084 | -34% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 05 | $18,989 | +$11,943 | +63% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Mar 31 | $9,481 | +$2,209 | +23% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Mar 29 | $5,000 | −$4,928 | -99% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Mar 24 | $344 | +$22 | +6% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Feb 27 | $5,000 | +$584 | +12% |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Jan 21 | $10 | −$4 | -44% |