Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc613…6a7f crypto 419 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$135 (-0%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate82%343W / 74L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$584
crypto 22% +$163
other 15% +$237
world 1% +$29
culture 1% +$33
politics 0% −$8
tech 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.5% +13.6% 100% 100% +13.6%
≤30d 5 -32.9% -39.2% 60% 20% -33.6%
≤90d 14 -8.4% -17.1% 86% 7% -14.7%
all 417 +2.2% -7.5% 82% 43% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 43% -9.8%
10% -16.4% 29% -18.4%
15% -24.5% 14% -26.3%
20% -31.9% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$69 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses343 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)417 / 419
History coverage250d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 417 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $98 +$25 +26%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 4.5 May 21 $314 −$314 -100%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 3 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $298 +$15 +5%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $14 −$13 -96%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur FC? May 19 $298 +$15 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 14 $283 +$14 +5%
Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5 May 12 $267 +$17 +6%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 May 11 $251 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 4.5 May 11 $234 +$17 +7%
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 10 $224 +$10 +5%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $217 +$7 +3%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 07 $205 +$13 +6%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 06 $190 +$14 +7%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Mar 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? Mar 14 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Mar 07 $200 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CD Riestra vs. CA Platense end in a draw? Mar 06 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Mar 04 $156 +$37 +24%
Will Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Mar 02 $183 +$58 +32%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 0 - 0 Chelsea FC? Mar 01 $105 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0 - 0 Nottingham Forest FC? Mar 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Will FC Metz vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? Mar 01 $130 +$53 +41%
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 3 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? Mar 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $125 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 01 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $126 +$17 +14%
1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5 Mar 01 $113 +$14 +12%
US Cremonese vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 +$14 +14%
Set 1 Winner: Gauff vs Baptiste Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
ASB Classic: Ben Shelton vs Sebastian Baez Mar 01 $387 −$387 -100%
Islanders vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5 Mar 01 $34 −$34 -100%
Capitals vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 Mar 01 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $1,270 +$64 +5%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5 Feb 28 $1,219 +$51 +4%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5 Feb 28 $1,168 +$50 +4%
CD Unión La Calera vs. Audax CS Italiano: O/U 3.5 Feb 28 $1,105 +$63 +6%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 4.5 Feb 27 $1,044 +$61 +6%
Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 3.5 Feb 27 $992 +$52 +5%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5 Feb 26 $10 $0 +4%
Clube do Remo vs. SC Internacional: O/U 4.5 Feb 26 $933 +$60 +6%
Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 2.5 Feb 24 $861 +$71 +8%
FC Porto vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 23 $818 +$43 +5%
Canada vs. USA: O/U 5.5 Feb 22 $800 +$17 +2%
Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5 Feb 22 $774 +$26 +3%
Brentford FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5 Feb 21 $747 +$27 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $123 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $98 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 69¢ $101 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 AND BUY 43¢ $58 3d
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $314 27d
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 3 Aston Villa FC? BUY No 95¢ $98 28d
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 3 Aston Villa FC? BUY No 95¢ $200 28d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes $14 28d
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur FC? BUY No 95¢ $90 29d
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur FC? BUY No 95¢ $208 29d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jannik Sinner 95¢ $3 34d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jannik Sinner 95¢ $10 34d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jannik Sinner 95¢ $20 34d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jannik Sinner 95¢ $50 34d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jannik Sinner 95¢ $200 34d
Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $267 36d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $251 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $234 38d
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? SELL No 100¢ $234 38d
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? BUY No 95¢ $4 38d
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? BUY No 95¢ $20 38d
Exact Score: West Ham United FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? BUY No 95¢ $200 38d
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $217 39d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY No 94¢ $205 42d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY No 93¢ $190 43d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $120 95d
Will Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $26 101d
Will Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $100 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1066 history records