Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc610…2fdf sports 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%6W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$2
politics 23% −$3
other 20% −$1
economics 8% −$1
crypto 7% −$2
world 5% −$1
culture 5% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 3 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
all 153 -1.4% -10.8% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses6 / 147
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage165d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 25 $42 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $46 −$1 -2%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $89 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Feb 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte Feb 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Feb 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $127 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 11d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 11d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $42 24d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $42 24d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 32d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 34d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 121d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 121d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $41 121d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $41 121d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $44 121d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $44 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $40 121d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $40 121d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $39 121d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $39 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 122d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $44 122d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $44 122d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $10 122d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $34 122d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $10 122d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $9 122d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $44 122d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $44 122d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $44 122d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $47 122d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $47 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.37 · official $38.37 (match) · 462 history records