Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc60f…b93e other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-14%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$19
sports 26% −$8
crypto 26% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 50% +10.1%
≤30d 4 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 50% +10.1%
≤90d 4 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 50% +10.1%
all 4 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 50% +10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 50% +10.1%
10% -23.8% 25% -0.5%
15% -31.2% 25% -10.1%
20% -37.9% 25% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 +$25 +123%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $9 −$6 -69%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 +$2 +18%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 24h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 33h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.29 · official $27.29 (match) · 10 history records