Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc60f…5b36 crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,168 (-11%) realized −$7,831 · open +$1,663
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 39L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$712per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$4,438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,450
7 days+$3,994
14 days+$3,994
30 days+$3,994
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$4,747
sports 30% +$2,773
other 18% −$2,356
world 1% −$375
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +49.3% +35.1% 41% 41% +15.7%
≤30d 27 +49.3% +35.1% 41% 41% +15.7%
≤90d 69 +11.0% +0.4% 43% 41% -19.3%
all 69 +11.0% +0.4% 43% 41% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 41% -19.3%
10% -9.2% 38% -27.1%
15% ← realistic here -18.0% 35% -34.1%
20% -26.0% 30% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,139) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
20.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$663 vs −$674 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$4,438
Realized−$7,831
Unrealized+$1,663
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions10
Markets (closed)69 / 79
History coverage53d
Avg bet$712
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 50¢ $340 $2,013 +$1,673 (+492%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $900 $916 +$16 (+2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $900 $883 −$17 (-2%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $183 $175 −$8 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 35¢ $50 $159 +$109 (+218%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $127 $116 −$11 (-8%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $85 $80 −$5 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,261 +$1,579 +125%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$158 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $82 +$718 +874%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $108 −$105 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $193 −$188 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $548 +$262 +48%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $82 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $82 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $505 −$500 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,209 +$2,874 +238%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $179 −$175 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,043 +$619 +59%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $205 +$1,611 +784%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $293 +$1,007 +344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,616 −$1,600 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $997 +$894 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,493 −$1,466 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,096 −$2,050 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,458 +$1,154 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 26 $2,467 −$2,466 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 26 $1,139 +$1,328 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 26 $2,272 −$2,224 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 26 $1,070 +$492 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 26 $1,931 +$39 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 26 $1,729 +$1,122 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 26 $2,363 −$2,361 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 26 $1,176 −$756 -64%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $3,254 −$3,234 -99%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 26 $2,112 −$2,109 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire Passion vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 26 $230 −$230 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Voca (BO3) - FRAG Group D Apr 26 $225 +$45 +20%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega Apr 26 $4,163 +$1,404 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 25 $1,320 −$1,305 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 25 $608 +$607 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 25 $411 +$302 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 25 $727 −$309 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 25 $427 +$286 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 25 $869 −$434 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 25 $145 −$141 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 25 $750 −$750 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 25 $625 −$609 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 25 $54 +$21 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $98 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $79 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $409 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $409 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $87 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $511 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $90 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $511 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $308 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $622 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $639 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $108 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $82 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $90 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $548 30h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 30h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 30h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $82 30h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $82 30h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $82 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,438.31 · official $4,276.63 · 1827 history records