Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C6 0xc60e…d971 other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$17
politics 42% −$18
sports 7% +$59
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 123 +3.2% -6.6% 5% 4% -9.5%
all 137 +4.3% -5.7% 8% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 7% -9.5%
10% -14.7% 4% -18.1%
15% -22.9% 4% -26.0%
20% -30.5% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×13.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage116d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $247 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 29 $218 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $211 $0 +0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 22 $237 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $290 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $270 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 19 $298 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $506 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $205 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $269 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 11 $290 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $284 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $256 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $207 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $204 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $227 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $292 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $293 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $271 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $480 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $209 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $274 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $211 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $310 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $275 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $246 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $224 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 6h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $25 9h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $25 22h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 30h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 13d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 14d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 22d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 22d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $218 23d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $218 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $211 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $211 30d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $237 30d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $237 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $290 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $290 31d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $270 31d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 31d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $246 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 416 history records