Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C6 0xc60b…d9f7 sports 255 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,471 (-16%) realized −$12,718 · open +$247
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%94W / 136L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day94.3pace
Fees−$621est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$966now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$847
7 days−$2,397
14 days−$6,155
30 days−$18,024
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$1,260
weather 30% −$2,863
other 17% −$12,122
crypto 5% −$1,043
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -18.5% -26.3% 23% 23% -50.0%
≤30d 219 -7.2% -16.0% 39% 37% -31.3%
≤90d 230 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 38% -26.7%
all 230 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 38% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 38% -26.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 38% -33.7%
15% -26.9% 37% -40.1%
20% -34.0% 35% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$347 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$966
Realized−$12,718
Unrealized+$247
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses94 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$621
Open positions3
Markets (closed)230 / 255
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$311
Trades / day94.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Yes 29¢ 50¢ $474 $800 +$326 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Yes 44¢ 54¢ $126 $153 +$27 (+22%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? Yes 40¢ 4¢ $120 $13 −$107 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $266 +$926 +348%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? Jun 22 $88 −$46 -52%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Jun 22 $163 −$33 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $411 −$408 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $59 +$261 +441%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $229 +$287 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $189 −$182 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 −$11 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Jun 19 $112 +$88 +79%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $125 −$122 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $127 +$71 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $600 −$600 -100%
Medjedovic vs. Humbert: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $54 −$25 -46%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 17 $108 +$108 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $223 −$194 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $576 −$533 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$102 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $136 +$62 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $108 −$58 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $92 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $150 +$48 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $97 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $141 +$59 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $99 −$98 -99%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Diallo (+1.5) Jun 16 $570 +$430 +75%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $465 −$465 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $340 −$340 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $390 +$610 +156%
Set Handicap: Damm (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) Jun 16 $356 −$356 -100%
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) Jun 15 $260 +$240 +92%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $340 +$802 +236%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $401 −$337 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $109 +$91 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 44¢ $127 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $490 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England BUY 25¢ $20 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Colombia vs BUY 13¢ $10 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Colombia vs BUY 20¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,192 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 26¢ $56 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 40¢ $66 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $966.13 · official $1,036.13 · 3500 history records