Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C6 0xc60a…2cca crypto 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 717d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$897 (-0%) realized −$893 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate72%166W / 65L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$9
14 days−$37
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$718
economics 8% −$31
politics 8% −$41
sports 6% −$52
other 3% −$60
culture 1% −$1
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.4% -31.6% 75% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 24 -13.2% -21.5% 79% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 68 -6.1% -15.0% 85% 0% -9.5%
all 231 -4.1% -13.2% 72% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 4% -9.9%
10% -21.5% 3% -18.5%
15% -29.1% 2% -26.4%
20% -36.1% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$1,008) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$1,163
Realized−$893
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses166 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)231 / 235
History coverage717d
Avg bet$904
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $998 $999 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $96 −$21 -22%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $999 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $312 −$56 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $730 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $880 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 26? May 26 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 25 $1,017 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? May 23 $343 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 22? May 22 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21? May 21 $1,017 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? May 20 $1,087 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $998 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? May 18 $996 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $1,110 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 16 $1,100 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? May 14 $1,003 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 13? May 13 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12? May 12 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? May 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11? May 11 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 08 $1,027 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 7? May 07 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 6? May 06 $1,017 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? May 05 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 04 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 29? May 04 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $1,506 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $1,015 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $1,009 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $1,008 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $1,008 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $990 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $1,008 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $1,008 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $998 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $782 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $217 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $974 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 63¢ $65 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 63¢ $10 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 8d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 14d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 91¢ $101 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $999 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $18 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $712 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $251 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,163.00 · official $1,163.00 (match) · 615 history records