Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C6 0xc607…6b29 world 183 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$100 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate60%108W / 71L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$802per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$8,892now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$294
14 days+$295
30 days+$905
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$930
other 16% −$330
sports 3% −$601
politics 2% −$136
crypto 2% −$13
culture 0% +$90
tech 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.3% -28.8% 60% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 82% 9% -6.3%
≤90d 35 -3.7% -12.8% 77% 14% -7.5%
all 179 -7.5% -16.3% 60% 25% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 25% -9.6%
10% -24.3% 16% -18.3%
15% -31.6% 11% -26.2%
20% -38.3% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$649) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$80 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$8,892
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses108 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)179 / 183
History coverage594d
Avg bet$802
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 98¢ 98¢ $6,944 $6,957 +$12 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,744 $1,794 +$50 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 75¢ 70¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 20 $3,384 +$139 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $220 −$33 -15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 18 $6,009 +$185 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $405 +$5 +1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $1,140 +$34 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 01 $773 +$42 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $6,946 +$285 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $1,569 +$16 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $4,689 +$233 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $1,432 +$35 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $1,954 +$36 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 16 $688 +$40 +6%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $18 $0 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 28 $3,360 +$7 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $2,863 −$20 -1%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 27 $422 +$16 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 27 $960 +$30 +3%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $346 +$46 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $516 +$57 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 22 $4,755 +$63 +1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $3,390 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premie Apr 14 $100 +$9 +8%
Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $6 +$4 +82%
Will Trump say "Qatar" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $6 +$2 +28%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $4,777 +$156 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $3,426 +$31 +1%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 01 $4,868 +$216 +4%
Will Iran strike Germany by March 31? Mar 29 $488 +$10 +2%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $2,188 −$61 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 25 $10,393 +$12 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $7,048 −$911 -13%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $1 +$1 +72%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 18 $1,935 +$25 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $3,084 +$4 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 17 $1,350 +$49 +4%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $238 +$215 +91%
Will NS RedForce win Masters Santiago 2026? Mar 16 $261 $0 +0%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 15 $77 +$23 +29%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 15 $861 +$79 +9%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $930 +$36 +4%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Gen.G win the LCK Cup 2026? Mar 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Mar 15 $30 −$28 -96%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Mar 14 $170 −$72 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $987 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 98¢ $801 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $683 17h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $8 18h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 98¢ $878 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $507 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 98¢ $488 25h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 98¢ $3 25h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $3,514 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $150 47h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $0 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $0 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $4 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $0 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3,500 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 67¢ $187 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,290 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $2,601 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,437 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $251 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $2,299 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4,757 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $182 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 79¢ $38 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $410 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 43¢ $1 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $1 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 52¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,891.92 · official $8,891.92 (match) · 1337 history records